Shanying Paper (600567): Paper scale steadily improves performance exceeds expectations
Event: The company released a performance forecast: the company expects to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 201914.
62 ‰, a decrease of 45% -55% in one year; net profit after deduction is 12.
5.7 billion, a decrease of 41 a year.
Opinion: The scale of papermaking and packaging has steadily increased, and performance has exceeded expectations.
The company’s paper and packaging sales in 2019 were 476 accessories, 12.
7.5 billion square meters, with annual growth of 3.
66%, business scale has steadily increased.
Sino-U.S. Trade friction has led to an increase in external scrap prices and logistics costs, leading to a decline in gross profit margin.
The Central China Base Project and the Phoenix Technical Transformation Project in 2019 are under construction and require high management costs.
At the same time, due to the tax reduction policy implemented in April 2019, the company’s tax refund income decreased.
The non-recurring gains and losses in 2019 decreased by about 3 in ten years.
US $ 800 million, mainly due to the company’s acquisition of Phoenix Paper in 2018, as the purchase price was lower than the fair value of the net assets, which resulted in non-operating income3.
500 million US dollars, so the non-recurring profit and loss base is high.
Multiple factors have 杭州桑拿网 caused the company’s performance to fall short of expectations in 2019.
2019Q4 net profit was 1.
370,000 yuan, net profit in 2018Q4 was 8.
USD 8.7 billion, the largest increase in performance was mainly due to the growth of the RMB exchange rate, the decline in investment income of the joint-stock companies and the decline in Nordic Paper’s fourth-quarter restructuring and technological changes affecting production.
In 2019, the company will actively promote the construction of central China base capacity and overseas waste paper pulp production, consolidate its main business, and help young people to enter the battlefield in 2020.
The outbreak occurred during the traditional off-season of the corrugated board industry, and we expect it to have less impact on the company.
Earnings forecast and estimation: As the company’s 2019 performance forecast issued by the company continued to shrink, the reduction of tax rebate income and non-recurring profit and loss and other factors affect the 2019 performance, and considering the epidemic situation, the shutdown of the Hubei factory and the possible decline in downstream demand,Cut earnings forecast.
EPS are expected to be 0 in 19-21.
46 yuan, corresponding PE is 11X, 8X, 7X.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk Warning: The price of raw materials has risen sharply, and the epidemic has affected production and downstream packaging demand